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Prediction for CME (2022-11-14T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-11-14T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22281/-1
CME Note: Visible in the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. May be associated with eruption from AR 13145 (N25W35), visible as a filament eruption directed southward from the AR in SDO AIA 304 beginning 2022-11-14T02:59Z, triggered by a C3.3 flare peaking 2022-11-14T02:49Z. No STEREO A EUVI imagery available during real-time analysis due to beacon data gap. Arrival signature (courtesy of Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS team): ICME signature around 2022-11-18T15:00Z where both By and Bz change signs. This CMEs might have interacted with the CME arriving on 2022-11-17. The CME exhibits compression (negative expansion), see the increasing speed. This might explain the peaks and compression observed in proton density. A possible end of this ICME can be around 2022-11-19T12:24Z, after that the field becomes turbulent.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-11-18T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-17T11:10Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -18749.12 hour(s)
Difference: 28.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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